Interesting. If London's seroprevalence is 17%, with a population of 8.9 million and 7,758 #COVID19 deaths today implies an IFR in London of ~0.51%https://twitter.com/onisillos/status/1263541718407876610 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Health Nerd Retweeted onisillos sekkides
Interesting. If London's seroprevalence is 17%, with a population of 8.9 million and 7,758 #COVID19 deaths today implies an IFR in London of ~0.51%https://twitter.com/onisillos/status/1263541718407876610 …
Health Nerd added,
I’m still trying to confirm this. It’s the highest I’ve seen (even Stockholm is much lower). Do you recall anything higher? If correct it speaks volumes about the effectiveness of interventions here
NYC is estimated at ~21% but I think that's the only one higher off the top of my head. Madrid region was just over 10%, Czech Republic and Slovenia much lower, and nowhere in the states aside from NYC has been above 5% I think
I managed to miss/forget the NYC data. Maybe the London figure is plausible then?
I think it's certainly plausible, well within the bounds of most estimates. It might be a little high, but I'd be surprised (given the number of deaths) if London had lower than 10% seroprevalence (which would imply 0.9% IFR)
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