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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020

      Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa

      78 replies 935 retweets 2,292 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 20 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @StuartJRitchie

      You guys love to nitpick the hell out of these things and totally miss the forest for the trees. A comprehensive overview of serology testing is exactly what we have needed. It doesn’t need to be perfect because what we currently have is basically nothing

      5 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    3. Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something‏ @Epi_D_Nique 20 May 2020
      Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @GidMK @StuartJRitchie

      It’s not nitpicking but a valid scientific critique. Heavily biased estimates can be worse than none at all - especially when the bias seems to be intentionally in the direction that the author wants.

      5 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
    4. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
      Replying to @Epi_D_Nique @GidMK @StuartJRitchie

      How has this become a political issue where the left wants to the IFR to be as high as possible?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something‏ @Epi_D_Nique 21 May 2020
      Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @GidMK @StuartJRitchie

      To the extent IFR has been politicized it's to minimize it by some folks on the right to serve the "reopen" agenda. But fundamentally, IFR is incredibly hard to estimate, especially in the middle of a pandemic & the difficulty tends to lead to underestimates.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 May 2020
      Replying to @Epi_D_Nique @JoshuaKessler1 @StuartJRitchie

      I think it's interesting because from an evidential point of view there is really no need to calculate an IFR to justify lockdowns. I think the main reason that the IFR is so politicized is simply because it's lower than a CFR so it's less scary

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
    7. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

      Did you look at BMIs over 35? Do you have that data anywhere? I think the age IFR is useful because we should be investing billions in protecting nursing homes because the IFR could be 10% in them If the IFR is the same as the flu for people under 65 do they need to lockdown?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
      Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @GidMK and

      You obviously like lockdowns though, so i’m not going to argue that point with you. If definitely slows down deaths, but for how long? And how many other deaths are occurring because people are staying away from the hospital?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something‏ @Epi_D_Nique 21 May 2020
      Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @GidMK @StuartJRitchie

      You have found all of the fundamental questions of our moment...pic.twitter.com/44XPTKc06x

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
      Replying to @Epi_D_Nique @GidMK @StuartJRitchie

      It’s a tricky thing. I work in cancer treatment and I am worried about how many patients are going to come in with advanced stage cancer that we could have stopped two months ago. But, many of those people would be high-risk for Covid too.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 May 2020
      Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

      Yep. I work in diabetes primarily, and the issue is similar. People starting to trickle in even now with issues that should've been dealt with months ago, but again if they'd caught COVID they would be extremely high risk so it's a complex trade-off

      3:06 PM - 21 May 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something Joshua Kessler
      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

          So, if the IFR for the general population is 0.7% and 2.4% of deaths are people under 40. If you assume half the population is under 40, then the IFR for people under 40 is about 0.033% or 3 out of 10,000.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 May 2020
          Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

          Something like that yes. I think the best estimate for IFR in under-70s comes from the Denmark blood donors study which estimated it at ~8 per 10,000

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

          And it’s about 0.07% for people under 50. This seems like useful information to me. About 75% of deaths are over 65, and 13% of the populations is over 65 that gives an IFR of 4%! That is insane. And I’m getting 12% for people over 80.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Joshua Kessler‏ @JoshuaKessler1 21 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

          Why aren’t we testing constantly in nursing homes! That the most important. Thing we can do!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 May 2020
          Replying to @JoshuaKessler1 @Epi_D_Nique @StuartJRitchie

          The nursing home issue is, to me, relatively simple - we have systematically undervalued aged care for decades, and now there's a time of crisis we simply can't improve what is often a dodgy for-profit sector in time to make a difference

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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