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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 21 May 2020

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD Retweeted Eric Topol

      A few comments on how to interpret this preprint on the front page (!) of the @nytimes. During a period of exponential growth, early intervention can have a big impact. This is well known. But it is extraordinarily difficult to quantify the magnitude of this counterfactual... 1/5https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1263294092009566208 …

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD added,

      Eric TopolVerified account @EricTopol
      A @ColumbiaMSPH preprint has attracted considerable attention for life saving impact for each day earlier implementation of control measures. The⬆️#dataviz by @nytimes vs the @medrxivpreprint is notable https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v1.full.pdf … by @SenPei_CU and colleagues https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1263280065682575362 … pic.twitter.com/uknPyhK89y
      Show this thread
      18 replies 161 retweets 399 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 21 May 2020

      The group from Columbia's model works by estimating the impact of movement restrictions on R, and then shifting this either 1 or 2 weeks earlier. R dramatically drops around the time of restrictions, so this yields a big change to the dynamics of the subsequent outbreak. 2/5

      3 replies 7 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 21 May 2020

      But the drop in R has been observed to occur earlier than policies are put in place. People watch the news and change their behavior voluntarily. Hence my quote in @nytimes: “Do people need to hear the sirens for them to stay home?” Is it valid to shift R back a week or two? 3/5

      5 replies 13 retweets 93 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 21 May 2020

      Furthermore, modeling requires location-specific estimates of R and reporting rates, but these things are hard to separate. Consider the situation in early March in NYC. The sharp increase in cases reflects both growth in the epidemic and growth in testing. 4/5

      2 replies 8 retweets 59 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 21 May 2020

      In my opinion, these models are best equipped to help us draw qualitative conclusions, not quantitative estimates of how many deaths would have been prevented by earlier intervention. The answer is many, but there is otherwise too much uncertainty. 5/5

      10 replies 24 retweets 175 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 21 May 2020

      Adding my excerpted quote from this story:pic.twitter.com/wBXDKhXPhN

      13 replies 16 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 May 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean

      I think there will be a very interesting research project after all this is done looking at the correlation between testing numbers/rates early in the pandemic and self-imposed movement restrictions

      2:45 PM - 21 May 2020
      • 1 Like
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      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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