Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
You guys love to nitpick the hell out of these things and totally miss the forest for the trees. A comprehensive overview of serology testing is exactly what we have needed. It doesn’t need to be perfect because what we currently have is basically nothing
It’s not nitpicking but a valid scientific critique. Heavily biased estimates can be worse than none at all - especially when the bias seems to be intentionally in the direction that the author wants.
I don’t think the isolation nerd blogger South Wales is better at this than the Stanford epidemiology team. This guy is making is own assumptions and I think he is overestimating right censoring and many of his critiques are either overestimated or irrelevant
Which critique specifically? And why?
I think, your IFR is a little high, his is a little low. It’s probably 0.5% for most places. But, certainly if many elderly people were infected in an area the IFR could be above 0.7%. I think an age based IFR would be much more useful and consistent across regions
That's the conclusion of our paper - without age-stratification it is at best a tenuous figure that is probably less helpful than people seem to think
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