I'd actually really love any answers here - has anyone investigated this question? Lots of people making blanket assumptions with no evidence, but I've yet to see an actual analysis @Adam_Creightonhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1263201123424366592 …
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Replying to @GidMK @Adam_Creighton
Given the economic data coming out everywhere, the structure of the argument is very simply - decline in travel, leisure, hospitality, elective healthcare, construction etc. drive the carnage. To the extent, these are autonomous behavioural adjustments, they would've reduced...
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..Rt as well, to the extent Rt is reducing only because these are mandated from top down, the mandated lockdown is causing a significant part of the damage. Whether effect on Rt is asymmetric vs economic impact is a much tougher question, and will only be answered in retrospect.
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If you're interested in any *theoretical* modelling behind it, a number of the latest NBER papers esp Acemoglu/Weening and Eicgenbaum et al try to model this with results favouring targeted isolation of the elderly or central quarantine over general lockdown.
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Sure, but all of that happens regardless of government action. What's the marginal impact of a government imposing laws vs not?
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