I'd actually really love any answers here - has anyone investigated this question? Lots of people making blanket assumptions with no evidence, but I've yet to see an actual analysis @Adam_Creightonhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1263201123424366592 …
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Yep, this: Modelling suggests one-year economic pause = 22% contraction and $4.2 trillion. But no lockdown = economy contracts by about 7% over that year—but loss of life means loss of roughly $6.1 trillion.https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/modelers-weigh-value-lives-and-lockdown-costs-put-price-covid-19 …
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This model is a little too simplific. Their revised model that includes lethality as a function of age will give much more insight. My guess is that the negative economic impact of no lockdown will be reduced since elderly have less future years to contribute to the economy.
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