Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
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I think you may have over estimated right-censoring, and you dismissed the 20% adjustment he made for antibodies tested. I was a solid critique on the whole though, I spoke too quickly because of the media pile on over Ioannidis.
Well, Ioannidis agreed with me that some adjustment for right-censoring was required, he just didn't do it when studies had themselves calculated an IFR - but many of the studies didn't! Complex. The 20% adjustment is far too crude, depending on when people are
I think, your IFR is a little high, his is a little low. It’s probably 0.5% for most places. But, certainly if many elderly people were infected in an area the IFR could be above 0.7%. I think an age based IFR would be much more useful and consistent across regions
That's the conclusion of our paper - without age-stratification it is at best a tenuous figure that is probably less helpful than people seem to think
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