I fear you can't make any objective analyses in weighing lockdown vs. economic harm, because you don't really have controls. What IS indisputable, though, is that lockdowns saved lives.
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No such thing as ‘indisputable’ in science and 4 papers demonstrate that it didn’t
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Funerals are good for GDP - all those coffins and all those brass handles gotta come from somewhere.
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Given the economic data coming out everywhere, the structure of the argument is very simply - decline in travel, leisure, hospitality, elective healthcare, construction etc. drive the carnage. To the extent, these are autonomous behavioural adjustments, they would've reduced...
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..Rt as well, to the extent Rt is reducing only because these are mandated from top down, the mandated lockdown is causing a significant part of the damage. Whether effect on Rt is asymmetric vs economic impact is a much tougher question, and will only be answered in retrospect.
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Waving hi from Nz where we had a strict lockdown and only 21 deaths, new cases at zero. Economy is reopening in stages. Biggest hit is tourism and that’s going to need the world to catch up with us.
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Isn't the valid question: what are the est. excess deaths from a recession v those from pandemic PLUS what excess economic slowing is due to lockdown v from ppl self-isolating due to pandemic?
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The evidence available is from the 1918 flu which strongly suggests that preventative measures result in lower mortality and lower economic damage. Places that did nothing or waited too long suffered more deaths and worse economic damage
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The question inherently assumes that the lock down is causing the economic damage, not the virus itself. People were locking themselves down before governments intervened. Some fraction of any economic damage was inevitable.
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Precisely
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