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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 May 2020

    Thought this would be interesting - meta-analysis of serology vs non-serology estimates of IFR, updated today to include all population seroprevalence estimates I'll be updating the preprint again on the weekendpic.twitter.com/FRqvkK1D58

    6:12 PM - 20 May 2020
    • 9 Retweets
    • 23 Likes
    • Pieter Peach Anna M.C. Gunnarsson John Klopfer Gemma Turnbull StrathclydeMark 💙 Arch-Physicist 😷 #ZeroCovid 🍹Possum Trump🌊- Cave Dweller (you/he/we/they) Reasoned Writing Willie Swart
    3 replies 9 retweets 23 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 May 2020

        Of note - I think the seroprevalence studies are converging at a slightly lower IFR than models and PCR data, it looks like the eventual population IFR will probably be around 0.6%

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 May 2020

        Fascinatingly, it appears that more and more data is supporting the initial estimate of ~0.6% from Imperial College modelling on Diamond Princess Data way back in early Marchpic.twitter.com/sx4pxZd2cJ

        2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Brian Dell‏ @Brian_Dell 20 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Still a lot of serosurveys being excluded here. What's wrong with the Danish blood donors study by Erikstrup et al? Sure, it's for younger than 70 but you could infer an IFR by using demographic data

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Brian Dell‏ @Brian_Dell 20 May 2020
        Replying to @Brian_Dell @GidMK

        And what's wrong with the LA County study? JAMA has it here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766367 …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Thomas Bashford‏ @BashfordThomas 21 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        2 suggestions: - weight the estimates by # of deaths. Streeck paper <10 deaths, in Spain and New York > 20,000 - reweight the Spanish data to uniform attack rate by age. p8 of their release shows increasing prevalence by age

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Thomas Bashford‏ @BashfordThomas 21 May 2020
        Replying to @BashfordThomas @GidMK

        I also wouldn’t include the CEBM estimate, as it doesn’t include any original data

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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