Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
We can also set a hard lower bound for the US IFR: 150,000 dead (a reasonable estimate given excess fatality rates per work from Yale) and 300M total population: 150,000/300,000,000 = 0.0005 = 0.05% But, of course, most have not been exposed and we're only 6 months in…
Yeh I think it's too early to do this sort of calculation with entire countries, but for regions without much travel it makes sense
But it does show that the lower bound from the paper in question (0.02%) doesn't even pass the most permissive of chuckle tests.
Actually, that's a pretty good point. I think there's sufficient evidence now that the lower bound for IFR probably can't be below 0.1%, even in young and healthy populations
I truly loathe the "in low-risk populations the risk is low!" argument but I thought it was at least factually correct. Do you have a reference on hand for looking at this?
Not specifically, I do discuss it in the thread. Should note that here I'm talking about *relatively* young and healthy populations, (i.e. not university students, for example)
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