Today, this new preprint from John Ioannidis (of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame) went online Already up to Altmetric of 541 Let's do a rapid peer-review on twitter 1/npic.twitter.com/aNth3I59Xa
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I truly loathe the "in low-risk populations the risk is low!" argument but I thought it was at least factually correct. Do you have a reference on hand for looking at this?
Not specifically, I do discuss it in the thread. Should note that here I'm talking about *relatively* young and healthy populations, (i.e. not university students, for example)
But would not it also depend on at what stage the disease is detected, demographics and treatment protocol. Singapore has a CFR less than 0.1%. Iceland has a CFR of ~0.5%. Why can’t these be treated as upper bounds?
Think on it a bit more.
UK closing in on 66,000 excess deaths. Given a 66m population, That’s your 0.1% lower bound right there - and all the suggestions from govt are the total infection level is actually between 5% and 10%
No so terrible though. We should respond to trends, not to numbers. I do believe IFR’s are likely in the range of 0.1-0.2% and believe that these rates will improve over time. We have therapeutics available and gained much on how to acutely stabilize critically ill people
…And, when total population is the denominator, it’s no longer IFR, but rather crude mort rt that we’re referring to.
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