14/n But if we look at the other included studies, this problem is repeated. The French and Japanese studies both used highly-selected patient populations, both of which likely would lead to a biased (low) estimate of IFRpic.twitter.com/imYkR1aEyN
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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14/n But if we look at the other included studies, this problem is repeated. The French and Japanese studies both used highly-selected patient populations, both of which likely would lead to a biased (low) estimate of IFRpic.twitter.com/imYkR1aEyN
15/n (The same concern has been raised about the Santa Clara study at the bottom, but for now let's ignore that and move on)
16/n Remember when I said that the calculation of individual IFRs was reasonable? Well, there's a problem here. When Ioaniddis calculated IFRs, he did a decent job. However, some of the INCLUDED STUDIES didn't
17/n For example, the Iran, Kobe, and Brazilian studies made no attempt to account for right-censoring That's an issue, as I describe here https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262563856456445952?s=20 …pic.twitter.com/dSoRieF29E
18/n In addition, the Iranian study uses the official figure for deaths, and as has been pointed out this number may be a significant underestimatepic.twitter.com/AQBSIirjRF
19/n So, a problem The red-outlined studies are clearly not estimates of population IFR - they look at specific, selected individuals and can't be extrapolated The orange-outlined studies are likely underestimates due to methodologypic.twitter.com/b4bZBslEpN
20/n If we exclude these potentially misleading numbers, the lowest IFR estimate immediately jumps from 0.04% to 0.18% Coincidentally, that 0.18% is Ioannidis' own researchpic.twitter.com/PlaOSJ1AbB
21/n To me, a low estimate of 0.18% makes MUCH more sense than a minimum of 0.02% for IFR Why? Well, take New York. ~16,000 deaths in a city of 8.4 million means that if every single person has been infected the IFR would be 0.19%pic.twitter.com/pmA8oM4nSm
22/n Now, everyone calls NYC an outlier, and perhaps it is, but if you repeat this calculation for other places in the States, the same chilling thing happens: Massachusetts: 0.9% New Jersey: 0.12% Connecticut: 0.1%
Are you sure about this Massachusetts number? I think maybe it's a typo and you meant to write 0.09%. (Excellent thread, by the way.)
Oh yep, you're correct. Massachusetts is ~6,000/6.8mil = 0.09% dead. Good catch!
Cool. Scared me at first! It's really remarkable how he's doing exactly what he has criticized other researchers of (rightly, as I understand it).
I had the same reaction: “0.9?!? Never leaving my house!”pic.twitter.com/CKVGM6IYQV
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