22/n Now, everyone calls NYC an outlier, and perhaps it is, but if you repeat this calculation for other places in the States, the same chilling thing happens: Massachusetts: 0.9% New Jersey: 0.12% Connecticut: 0.1%
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33/n Ultimately, it's hard to know the why, but what we can say is that this review appears to have very significantly underestimated the infection-fatality rate of COVID-19
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34/n Moreover, the methodology is quite clearly inadequate to estimate the IFR of COVID-19, and thus the study fails to achieve its own primary objective
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35/n Something that people are pointing out - another weakness of this study is that the author appears to have taken the LOWEST POSSIBLE IFR estimate from each study For example, the Gangelt authors posited an IFR of 0.37-.46%, this paper cites 0.28% https://twitter.com/FreisinnigeZtg/status/1262983934549397511?s=20 …
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36/n I should note - this paper is currently a PREPRINT This gives us a great opportunity. We can correct the record in real time, and put up a study that actually achieves its aims Let's hope it happens
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37/n I think it's also worth pointing out that I personally WISH that the IFR of COVID-19 was 0.02%. It would solve so many of our problems - unfortunately, it seems extremely unlikely
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38/n Another good critique of the study is here: https://quomodocumque.wordpress.com/2020/05/19/pandemic-blog-23-why-one-published-research-finding-is-misleading/ … It appears that for the Netherlands study, the number provided in this review is roughly 6x lower than the true IFR
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End of conversation
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This is what I don’t get. Even an IFR of 0.2 % with 50 % of the US population infected it’s a big deal. So what if it’s not what the WHO initially estimated? That doesn’t make it good news, just less bad news.
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Glass houses again I fear.
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