The answer is...this study is probably wrong! If we extend the timeline, and look at the LIFETIME risk of smoking for 30 year olds, suddenly there's a HUGE increase in the risk of lung cancerpic.twitter.com/f0bZz5SfXq
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Not sure where you're getting the estimate from there, because that study performed a single test between 3 and 60 days after symptom onset
Also worth noting that many of the seroprevalence studies test for IgG and IgM
The point is they showed the liklihood of positivity increased with time after symptom onset up to 28 days. And even if you don’t agree with the exact number, I’m sure you will agree that at best the use serology to define infection minimises the effect you describe.
Not really, you'd need consecutive longitudinal samples for that, and as I said this is only for IgG. I'd mistrust any estimate that makes no attempt to account for right-censoring
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