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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      What does this mean to antibody results for COVID-19? Well, think about how these studies are conducted. We test a bunch of people randomly on day x to get an idea of how many people are immune to COVID-19 on that day

      1 reply 6 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      Then, to calculate mortality, most people take the number of deaths on day x and divide by the denominator implied by the results

      1 reply 5 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      So, if we think 4% of 100,000 people have had COVID-19, and 10 of them have died on day x, we'd say that the infection-fatality rate is 10/4000 = 0.025%

      2 replies 7 retweets 38 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      BUT there's an issue here People don't die from COVID-19 immediately. It usually takes somewhere between 15-20 days from when they get infected The data is right-censored!

      7 replies 13 retweets 81 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      There are probably a bunch of people who HAVE the disease on day x who are counted in our sample and will die but haven't yet!

      1 reply 2 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      So, what we SHOULD do in cases like these is either: a) use a statistical model to account for this issue b) wait a few weeks and use different death estimates to correct for potential right-censoring

      2 replies 5 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      Instead, most people just take the proportion immune on day x and divide by deaths on the same day This will almost certainly underestimate the 'true' infection-fatality rate, and is a big worry

      9 replies 12 retweets 135 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Dr. Naomh Gallagher‏ @naomhgallagher 18 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It’s an important caveat to be aware of but I don’t think it will be that important in the fatality estimates. Time from infection to death is relatively short (esp when compared to smoking & ca), but assumption is that no longer term risk exists

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020
      Replying to @naomhgallagher

      Gotta say I disagree. One Iranian study calculated IFR from the deaths on the day their seroprevalence data was collected - if they had used deaths from a week later, the IFR estimate would've doubled

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Dr. Naomh Gallagher‏ @naomhgallagher 18 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Ok I was assuming some lag between collecting data and mortality figures used (same day seems very efficient!). The importance will still be greater in a study using diagnostic test, as most pos seroprevalence will be over their infection. Cohort study best if possible

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 May 2020
      Replying to @naomhgallagher

      Efficient is definitely one way to describe it!

      12:19 AM - 19 May 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Joseph Palmeri Dr. Naomh Gallagher
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Dr. Naomh Gallagher‏ @naomhgallagher 19 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Yea probably not the best word to use 🤪 I blame a small baby and lack of sleep

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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