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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020

      There's some evidence suggesting that #COVID19 was circulating in some countries as early as December last year One interesting implication of this is that it suggests travel bans were very much ineffective (the horse was long gone)pic.twitter.com/jY8yVAQgrc

      3 replies 10 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Daniel Reeders  🏳️‍⚧️‏ @engagedpractx 18 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I mean, Wuhan is a city of 11m people and a major industrial centre, so of course there was going to be some travel-based transmission. But I don't know if that means travel bans are very much ineffective? They worked pretty well for countries that did them early.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020
      Replying to @engagedpractx

      Did they? Italy was the first to really close borders, along with some other really hard-hit areas. If the virus was already circulating in Europe in late December, it would explain why the bans from European countries didn't do all that much

      2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
    4. Daniel Reeders  🏳️‍⚧️‏ @engagedpractx 18 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      You can't ignore timing as a factor in effectiveness 😅 If the R0 is around 2-3 then a few isolated seeds are not going to spark a local epidemic — we know that because that's what happened here

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020
      Replying to @engagedpractx

      Haha true, maybe better to say that travel bans were only effective in countries lucky enough not to have a local epidemic exported from Wuhan before they closed their borders

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Daniel Reeders  🏳️‍⚧️‏ @engagedpractx 18 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Even then, it's a bit all or nothing — treating an intervention as effective only if it completely prevents an outbreak. There's no question a travel ban is a useful thing to do even if you already have a local outbreak — keeps overall numbers down, lets you focus contact tracing

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020
      Replying to @engagedpractx

      I think the context is very important here tho. What's true in Australia, where travel is difficult and time-consuming and very centred in a few areas is probably not quite as true for, say, Belgium

      10:28 PM - 18 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Daniel Reeders  🏳️‍⚧️‏ @engagedpractx 18 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Right, and the more context matters, the less helpful it is to talk about travel bans in general terms / as a discrete intervention.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 May 2020
          Replying to @engagedpractx

          Excuse you, if I can't generalize then what is twitter for????

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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