Think about it - how many 30 years olds develop cancer by the age of 35? Might this make our study's results biased towards a conclusion?
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This example of right-censoring is accurate if you are looking at PCR but not as accurate for antibody tests, since it takes 2-3 weeks to reliably produce antibodies the fatality/seropositive case ratio comes closer to the true IFR than fatality/PCR positive case ratio does - no?
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From my understanding, it depends on the antibody tested, but generally speaking people will develop antibodies progressively over time from a few days after infection, so you'll have some people relatively recently infected testing positive
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Really deaths should be counted based on infections from ~3 weeks back. In every single country this hit, IFR has doubled or in some cases tripled a month or so into outbreak and generally drifts up from there. Lot of bad decisions being made by people aren’t accounting for this.
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To my knowledge, average time to death and time to a robust antibody response in a serology study is almost equal, with around 23-24 days.
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What takes longer after a covid infection, developing testable antibodies or dying? (Obviously not the same person.)
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It’s an important caveat to be aware of but I don’t think it will be that important in the fatality estimates. Time from infection to death is relatively short (esp when compared to smoking & ca), but assumption is that no longer term risk exists
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Gotta say I disagree. One Iranian study calculated IFR from the deaths on the day their seroprevalence data was collected - if they had used deaths from a week later, the IFR estimate would've doubled
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Excellent point even though it is totally obvious. Deaths lag infections. Correcting for this is straight forward, unless you have just had a drastic measure that affects the R0/doubling time for the # infected so your historical data in no good for predictions.
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The virus is extremely contagious. Infected rabbits or carcasses, their meat or fur, contaminated food and water, and clothing and shoes can transmit it. Looks like another virus is affecting American Rabbits seventy years after Myxomatosis, why now
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Very importantly, deaths known on day X <> deaths that occurred by day X. I suspect this is a huge issue, especially in early studies.
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