A lot of antibody surveillance results coming out at the moment, which gives us a chance to think about the fatality rate of #COVID19
But, there's a catch. Let's talk about right-censoring and why it's important 
-
-
BUT there's an issue here People don't die from COVID-19 immediately. It usually takes somewhere between 15-20 days from when they get infected The data is right-censored!
Show this thread -
There are probably a bunch of people who HAVE the disease on day x who are counted in our sample and will die but haven't yet!
Show this thread -
So, what we SHOULD do in cases like these is either: a) use a statistical model to account for this issue b) wait a few weeks and use different death estimates to correct for potential right-censoring
Show this thread -
Instead, most people just take the proportion immune on day x and divide by deaths on the same day This will almost certainly underestimate the 'true' infection-fatality rate, and is a big worry
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
10 / 4000 = 0.25%, but thanks for the explanation of right censoring.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.