... did you cut the graph off on the right hand side, @VPrasadMDMPH?https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1262429167900979205 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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James Heathers Retweeted Vinay Prasad, MD MPH 🎙️ 📷
... did you cut the graph off on the right hand side, @VPrasadMDMPH?https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1262429167900979205 …
James Heathers added,
"We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.31% (95% CrI 0.94-1.89) ... low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-0.17) and a substantially higher 4.16% (CrI 3.05-5.80) for people above 60 years of age."https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v2 …
Oh yeah, Diamond Princess one. Already has 56 cites!https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234121
And there was that Spanish seroprevalence survey (70K people or so) but I never read the actual study. That has a pretty heavily inferred IFR tho... https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-14/antibody-study-shows-just-5-of-spaniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html …
Ahh, the report from Imperial College. IFR = 0.90% I think. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf …
He hasn't cut off the graph, what he's done is include dodgy estimates that only include young people to make it look more normal. Danish blood donors were <65yo, pregnant sample also young, the Iranian study has...problems etc
There are two called "Swedish study", neither of which appear to be the Stockholm seroprevalence study which was much higher, pretty sure he's just got the estimate that some idiot derived from testing of hospital staff there
And the Greek repatriation study isn't a measure of IFR unless you're very disingenuous
The Slovenian seroprevalence study is also a bit problematic because their epidemic started late and no one has accounted for right-censoring. If a few more people die, the IFR will be much higher
The LA county flu testing study (if that's the one published in JAMA) is DEFINITELY not useful for determining an IFR
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