Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      So, let's look at the errors. The paper is here:https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ijcp.13528 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Basically, the authors did two things: 1) calculated the average growth rate in cases of COVID-19, and for some reason called this average R(ADIR) 2) used linear regression to predict R(ADIR) using a few oddly-chosen variables

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      They found that the only thing that significantly* predicted R(ADIR) was cases/1,000 of COVID-19, and then extrapolated from the regression equation to assume that if cases/1,000 = 6.6 the R(ADIR) would be 0 *STATISTICALLYpic.twitter.com/qwxzjNENcq

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      This is the FIRST big mistake You can't just assume linearity, and you certainly can't just extrapolate like that. For example, marathon times have been going down for years, but if we extrapolate linearly to the year 2100 they'll take 0 minutes to run!

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      You can run statistical tests to check all of these things and see if your assumptions are correct, but the authors didn't This is first-year stats stuff, and it's just missed entirely

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Which brings us to the SECOND big mistake: collinearity Without delving into too much depth, it's bad statistical practice to regress two things that we know are very closely relatedpic.twitter.com/GibiB0Hffl

      2 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      In this case, the authors calculated a variable (R(ADIR)) from new case numbers, and then regressed it against case numbers THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL ALWAYS BE CORRELATED BECAUSE THEY ARE CALCULATED FROM THE SAME INFORMATION

      1 reply 4 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      It's like regressing your age in years against the average age you've been over the last decade, and then shouting "Eureka!" when you find they are closely tied Again, a simple mistake, and something a first-year stats student is taught not to do

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      The THIRD big mistake is epidemiological. The authors assumed - with no evidence whatsoever - that an R(ADIR) of 0 meant immunity This is WRONGpic.twitter.com/2eCmbzdVDH

      2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Jarrod McMaugh MPS‏ @pharmerfour 17 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      This seems to be wrong from two perspectives. Not only is it wrong to assume that R(ADIR) = 0 means that all untested people have been exposed & are immune, it also assumes that exposure & recovery results in ongoing immunity. Is there evidence yet that people become immune?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 May 2020
      Replying to @pharmerfour

      From my understanding, there is sufficient evidence for some immunity, but how long this will last and how protective it is is not certain

      3:08 PM - 17 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Jarrod McMaugh MPS
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Jarrod McMaugh MPS‏ @pharmerfour 17 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I guess it's to be expected that there would be a certain level of immunity... but to assume complete immunity (especially given the recommendation for reduced isolation & subsequent coverage by media) seems risky

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info