Thing is, we can quite easily see many reasons for R(ADIR) to be 0 - this simply means that there are no new cases today (essentially) The most likely reason for no new cases? SOCIAL DISTANCING
That's certainly what they argue, but it is at best an extremely vague estimate and definitely not a realistic calculation
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See their definition of R_ADIR It's not a very sophisticated estimator; & its associated date should be shifted to account for date of test usually being sometime after the date of end of incubation. But I can't see why it should be grossly off, even if Fig 2 doesn't look righ
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There's something to be said for seeing what a rough-and-ready close to the data estimate looks like. Even if more strongly model-driven estimates of R(t) might be better, it's useful to see how much the model is adjusting what the data would naively indicate
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