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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      The THIRD big mistake is epidemiological. The authors assumed - with no evidence whatsoever - that an R(ADIR) of 0 meant immunity This is WRONGpic.twitter.com/2eCmbzdVDH

      2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Let's look at R(ADIR) It is basically the average of the ratio of new cases today to new cases over the last 5 days So where does immunity come in??? The authors don't say 🤔pic.twitter.com/6uhb6rGvYp

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Thing is, we can quite easily see many reasons for R(ADIR) to be 0 - this simply means that there are no new cases today (essentially) The most likely reason for no new cases? SOCIAL DISTANCING

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Assuming - without any evidence whatsoever - that R(ADIR) = 0 means immunity is simply wrong It is possible (with a vaccine) that this could be the case, but it is by no means plausible

      1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      On to the FOURTH big mistake: multiplying weirdly Basically they used that linear extrapolation to find that R(ADIR) = 0 when total cases/1,000 = 6.6, and then assumed that since this meant immunity, the other 993.4 people must've been exposed to COVID-19pic.twitter.com/MoH05TDwkZ

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      This is nonsensical. Even taking their entire approach at face value, the correlation between these two variables was only r^2 = 0.22 It is, again, simply wrong to just multiply the values out like this, because quite clearly there is more going on

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      There are numerous other errors in the study, but I think I've made my point If I were the author or the journal, I'd retract the study immediately But that's just me

      3 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
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    8. J. Heald‏ @heald_j 17 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Yes there are a fair number of problems with the paper, but your critique is off. The study is essentially trying to fit R(t) = R0 (1 - p) where p is proportion resistant using cumulative number of confirmed infections x as a surrogate for p, positing p = a x

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. J. Heald‏ @heald_j 17 May 2020
      Replying to @heald_j @GidMK

      In both cases linearity is not an unreasonable assumption (your criticism 1), although one should be cautious that * 'a' may not be stable wrt time, as testing regimes change (to allow different dates to be compared, cumulative hospitalisations might be better)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. J. Heald‏ @heald_j 17 May 2020
      Replying to @heald_j @GidMK

      * 'p' might reflect proportion of an 'effective' actively mixing population, rather than the whole population * there could be several other confounding factors systematically relating the two variables But it's not an unreasonable relation to investigate.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 May 2020
      Replying to @heald_j

      But that's not true. They do not calculate either R or R0, they calculate a completely different metric from case numbers and called it R which tbh is another serious problem with the paper

      4:08 AM - 17 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. J. Heald‏ @heald_j 17 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Look more closely, and you'll find that they have constructed R_ADIR as an estimate of R(t)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 May 2020
          Replying to @heald_j

          That's certainly what they argue, but it is at best an extremely vague estimate and definitely not a realistic calculation

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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