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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      In this case, the authors calculated a variable (R(ADIR)) from new case numbers, and then regressed it against case numbers THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL ALWAYS BE CORRELATED BECAUSE THEY ARE CALCULATED FROM THE SAME INFORMATION

      1 reply 4 retweets 15 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      It's like regressing your age in years against the average age you've been over the last decade, and then shouting "Eureka!" when you find they are closely tied Again, a simple mistake, and something a first-year stats student is taught not to do

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      The THIRD big mistake is epidemiological. The authors assumed - with no evidence whatsoever - that an R(ADIR) of 0 meant immunity This is WRONGpic.twitter.com/2eCmbzdVDH

      2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Let's look at R(ADIR) It is basically the average of the ratio of new cases today to new cases over the last 5 days So where does immunity come in??? The authors don't say 🤔pic.twitter.com/6uhb6rGvYp

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Thing is, we can quite easily see many reasons for R(ADIR) to be 0 - this simply means that there are no new cases today (essentially) The most likely reason for no new cases? SOCIAL DISTANCING

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      Assuming - without any evidence whatsoever - that R(ADIR) = 0 means immunity is simply wrong It is possible (with a vaccine) that this could be the case, but it is by no means plausible

      1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      On to the FOURTH big mistake: multiplying weirdly Basically they used that linear extrapolation to find that R(ADIR) = 0 when total cases/1,000 = 6.6, and then assumed that since this meant immunity, the other 993.4 people must've been exposed to COVID-19pic.twitter.com/MoH05TDwkZ

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      This is nonsensical. Even taking their entire approach at face value, the correlation between these two variables was only r^2 = 0.22 It is, again, simply wrong to just multiply the values out like this, because quite clearly there is more going on

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020

      There are numerous other errors in the study, but I think I've made my point If I were the author or the journal, I'd retract the study immediately But that's just me

      3 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
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    10. OJ‏ @OJNilsen 16 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Or block you...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 May 2020
      Replying to @OJNilsen

      True, but @DrAdrianHeald has said he's very happy to discuss criticisms. These are all simple errors that largely invalidate the paper - I imagine that he'd be keen to correct them (I would be)

      11:43 PM - 16 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • OJ
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Graeme Leggett‏ @GrumFromNorwich 17 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @OJNilsen @DrAdrianHeald

          That's not how it looks though with the blocks. Possibly he's just very thin-skinned or finding the onslaught difficult to deal with in a public forum.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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