They found that the only thing that significantly* predicted R(ADIR) was cases/1,000 of COVID-19, and then extrapolated from the regression equation to assume that if cases/1,000 = 6.6 the R(ADIR) would be 0 *STATISTICALLYpic.twitter.com/qwxzjNENcq
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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They found that the only thing that significantly* predicted R(ADIR) was cases/1,000 of COVID-19, and then extrapolated from the regression equation to assume that if cases/1,000 = 6.6 the R(ADIR) would be 0 *STATISTICALLYpic.twitter.com/qwxzjNENcq
This is the FIRST big mistake You can't just assume linearity, and you certainly can't just extrapolate like that. For example, marathon times have been going down for years, but if we extrapolate linearly to the year 2100 they'll take 0 minutes to run!
You can run statistical tests to check all of these things and see if your assumptions are correct, but the authors didn't This is first-year stats stuff, and it's just missed entirely
Which brings us to the SECOND big mistake: collinearity Without delving into too much depth, it's bad statistical practice to regress two things that we know are very closely relatedpic.twitter.com/GibiB0Hffl
In this case, the authors calculated a variable (R(ADIR)) from new case numbers, and then regressed it against case numbers THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL ALWAYS BE CORRELATED BECAUSE THEY ARE CALCULATED FROM THE SAME INFORMATION
It's like regressing your age in years against the average age you've been over the last decade, and then shouting "Eureka!" when you find they are closely tied Again, a simple mistake, and something a first-year stats student is taught not to do
The THIRD big mistake is epidemiological. The authors assumed - with no evidence whatsoever - that an R(ADIR) of 0 meant immunity This is WRONGpic.twitter.com/2eCmbzdVDH
Let's look at R(ADIR)
It is basically the average of the ratio of new cases today to new cases over the last 5 days
So where does immunity come in???
The authors don't say
pic.twitter.com/6uhb6rGvYp
Thing is, we can quite easily see many reasons for R(ADIR) to be 0 - this simply means that there are no new cases today (essentially) The most likely reason for no new cases? SOCIAL DISTANCING
Assuming - without any evidence whatsoever - that R(ADIR) = 0 means immunity is simply wrong It is possible (with a vaccine) that this could be the case, but it is by no means plausible
On to the FOURTH big mistake: multiplying weirdly Basically they used that linear extrapolation to find that R(ADIR) = 0 when total cases/1,000 = 6.6, and then assumed that since this meant immunity, the other 993.4 people must've been exposed to COVID-19pic.twitter.com/MoH05TDwkZ
This is nonsensical. Even taking their entire approach at face value, the correlation between these two variables was only r^2 = 0.22 It is, again, simply wrong to just multiply the values out like this, because quite clearly there is more going on
There are numerous other errors in the study, but I think I've made my point If I were the author or the journal, I'd retract the study immediately But that's just me
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