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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted

      1. An odd research study out of U. Manchester today uses an indirect and, frankly, bizarre method to estimate the incidence in the UK as being vastly higher than that inferred using more direct approaches. https://twitter.com/DrAdrianHeald/status/1260951024954638337 …

      Carl T. Bergstrom added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      37 replies 377 retweets 743 likes
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    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      2. The principal claim is that "unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases", meaning that "29% of the population may already have had the disease." (Most estimates from the US, EU, UK are closer to 10x than 200x) The tabloids are there:pic.twitter.com/hMtooxmxhk

      5 replies 17 retweets 113 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      3. Things get odd right from the very start. The first line of the paper's abstract is not your usual way of beginning a scientific report. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijcp.13528 …pic.twitter.com/RbQNVtE5P1

      9 replies 29 retweets 282 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      4. But let's get to the science. What did the authors do? They start by estimating a local R value that they call the Average Daily Infection Rate, and estimating its derivative. One could dig into this more deeply, but let's keep going instead.pic.twitter.com/dlGMOB9D43

      3 replies 8 retweets 98 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      5. What determines R? In an effort to estimate this, the authors use a regression approach across local regions. There's no underlying mechanistic model of how R changes with time, interventions, etc., nor any temporal analysis. Notice case density is from an April 8th snapshot.pic.twitter.com/YVjcp3Vsvh

      2 replies 11 retweets 98 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      6. Of the predictors in the regression, only cases/1000 people is predictive, albeit with an r^2 of 0.2. The authors then posit a linear relationship between R and case density: R_ADIR = 1.06 - 0.16 x Current Total Cases/1,000 population. Here's that data.pic.twitter.com/1XH9gz3XMQ

      11 replies 7 retweets 90 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      Uh, surely this is exactly what you'd expect? They've calculated R from local increase in cases, which is also used to calculate cases/1000 so it's probably more surprising that they aren't more closely correlated

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      Also, they've created a new "R" which seems to me to be very misleading because it's not at all the effective reproduction rate it's some odd unique calculation

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      For most bad papers, I'd write the whole thread about that alone. Here it didn't even make the cut.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      I get you, this is awful. But seriously, their R is quite clearly collinear with cases/1000 so it makes no sense to regress them at all. It's just bad maths if nothing else

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom

      Oh, also noticed - the extrapolation to "immunity" is clearly wrong. Even using their calculation and the rubbish in this paper, R(ADIR) = 0 has no bearing on immunity per se, simply on transmission. Could be due to social distancing!

      4:44 PM - 14 May 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Northern crone Carl T. Bergstrom Scott Myers
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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