Interestingly, adding these estimates also makes the publication bias look a lot less left-skewed, which to me indicates that perhaps there have been more low IFR studies published than high ones so farpic.twitter.com/6sbaDf4QcC
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Interestingly, adding these estimates also makes the publication bias look a lot less left-skewed, which to me indicates that perhaps there have been more low IFR studies published than high ones so farpic.twitter.com/6sbaDf4QcC
This is from the SR/MA pre-printed here, that I'll update some time in the next day or two with some new info https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1 …
Oh, and another interesting point is that when I use a modeled correction for publication bias, the IFR comes out as .78%, so potentially a touch higher if we include more estimates
"p=0.000"...I've gotta ask. "p" is the p-value? No argument from here. "Your witness, Counselor...".
How were the serosurveys selected? Serosurveys are also possibly biased right now, as deaths are frontloaded (the oldest and weakest die first, inflating IFR early on in the epidemic).
That only works if the oldest and weakest contract it at a higher rate early on. Other wise as more people get it the oldest and weakest keep dying at a similar rate. The first sentence is not out of the question by the way, though I doubt it at the current level of prevalence
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