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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 May 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Miguel Hernán

      We can now say with quite strong certainty that #COVID19 is not widespread, it is severe, and will kill a fairly large proportion of people that get infected "Just like the flu" is looking almost certainly wronghttps://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1260625031119409156 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Miguel HernánVerified account @_MiguelHernan
      BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary results of Spain's seroprevalence study #ENECOVID. >60,000 participants Antibodies for #SARSCoV2: 5% of Spanish population 11% in region with highest incidence (Madrid) So far from herd immunity in country with 2nd largest number of cases after U.S. https://twitter.com/desdelamoncloa/status/1260612372877754368 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 24 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 May 2020

      @LeaMerone and I meta-analysed published estimates of IFR in the population and got about 0.75% - I'd say that's looking more and more likely Younger populations maybe as low as 0.5%, some places could be as high as 1.2% Either way, that's a big number

      2 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 May 2020

      Nothing is ever 100% certain in this pandemic, but I think that it is incredibly unlikely that #COVID19 is "common and mild" as John Ioannidis recently asserted

      7:24 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 20 Likes
      • Jaime Raúl Molina Eileen OS Lozzi 💙 Dolce Andrei Kucharavy Mag di ta Muriel Lobier 😷😷 design Mark Svendsen
      3 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
        1. Bazooka Tooth‏ @realInfectious 13 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          John shit the bed on this one.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. c0nc0rdance‏ @c0nc0rdance 13 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I'd really love to see him say "I was wrong, and I'm happy to adjust my views in light of additional data".

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 May 2020
          Replying to @c0nc0rdance

          It'd be great, but it's so rare that I sincerely doubt he will. My guess is he'll either cherry-pick evidence or argue that he was right all along somehow

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Relief Belief - pronouns: smartest guy in the room‏ @ReliefBelief 13 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Holy crap. Can you contextualize this in terms of any other data there is like New York, (Iceland?) ?? How seriously should we take Spains info. And ARE there differing strains that have differing death rates as reported some places?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 14 May 2020
          Replying to @ReliefBelief @GidMK

          Iceland, with excellent testing: 1802 cases, 10 deaths. IFR at minimum: 0.55%

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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