Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

Tweets

Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      The British government has, weirdly, decided to make the effective reproduction rate (R or R(eff)) the cornerstone of its #COVID19 response Because everyone's now confused, I thought I'd do a quick tweetorial on what this number ispic.twitter.com/oDJlWVNc7I

      2 replies 42 retweets 75 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      So, FIRST THINGS FIRST There are TWO reproduction rates R0 (arr-naught), which is the BASIC reproduction rate, or R at time 0 R(eff)/Rt, which is the EFFECTIVE reproduction rate, or R at time t

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      R0 is a fairly simple idea - on average, the number of people that a person who gets #COVID19 will infect GIVEN NO INTERVENTIONS (100% susceptible)pic.twitter.com/YkR8vZJmgd

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      We calculate this number based on the SERIAL INTERVAL The serial interval is the average (estimated) period of time from one person getting infected to infecting someone themselvespic.twitter.com/t1syUwP3au

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      In other words, the R0 is based on a situation where no one is immune - the default for a novel virus - and no one is social distancing in any waypic.twitter.com/ug3ggyBLOA

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      For #COVID19, the R0 has been estimated to be roughly 2.5-3 in most populations, although the CDC estimated that in VERY early days in China the number may have been as high as 5.7pic.twitter.com/RuFJATTngk

      1 reply 4 retweets 10 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

      The R, or R(eff), on the other hand, is the reproduction rate AT ANY POINT IN TIME Now, this doesn't actually make any sense when you think about it

      6:09 PM - 11 May 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • Nina Milanov Luca T Brooke Binkowski NaFe065 Ms D 🌈 Riza
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          Why doesn't it make sense? Well, the reproduction rate is the average number of infections that each person who is sick will cause over the LIFETIME OF THEIR DISEASE In other words, over 2 weeks of infection, you might cause another 2.5-3 infections on average

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          But we can't see into the future, so we don't actually know how many people the current crop of infections will go on to infect themselves Which brings us to the modelling. Gotta love statspic.twitter.com/4MyseEBip3

          2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          So, it's impossible to get the 'true' R at any point in time, but using a range of serial intervals as well as the number of cases and a statistical model, we can get an idea of what R may have been at previous points in time

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          This paper gives an excellent description of how to do this and includes an Excel/R tool that you can download and apply yourselfhttps://academic.oup.com/aje/article/178/9/1505/89262 …

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          So, we know what R is and how to calculate it What does it MEAN? This is a bit complicated, because the reality is that no measure is useful in isolationpic.twitter.com/zcBlyciiDc

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          If the R is less than 1, on average people there are fewer new infections than existing ones, which means the epidemic is on the decline I.e. R=0.9, 100 infections today becomes 90 infections tomorrow

          1 reply 2 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          If the R is greater than 1, the epidemic is growing and there are more new cases than existing ones R=1.5, 100 infections today becomes 150 infections tomorrow

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          BUT this is very dependent on your initial numbers Yesterday, Australia had R = ~0.9 with only 21 new cases, while the UK had R = ~0.85 with nearly 4,000 new cases

          1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          To an extent, R gives you an idea of the DIRECTION of the epidemic, without telling you much about how a country or area is actually doingpic.twitter.com/0PxWyUKrNr

          1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          It's also RETROSPECTIVE, which means you can only have a decent idea of R a few days or even a week after the fact (this is based on the serial interval) New infections tomorrow means that the R may be higher today than you thought!

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          All of this is why it is very hard to see how you could base fast-moving policy decisions on R (it's also a bit of a pain to calculate)

          1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 11 May 2020

          If you ARE going to use R as a metric on which to base policy, it's probably a good idea to include a bunch of other metrics as well This is a good thing - more data is always useful!

          2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
          Show this thread
        14. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info