I've been thinking a lot about it today, and I have to say I can't see the rationale for basing a country's reopening primarily on R (reproduction rate) Yesterday 10/05/20: Australia R = ~0.9, 21 new cases UK R = ~0.85, 3923 new cases
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I think the point is that a 10% increase when you have 10 cases is very different to a 10% increase when you have 100,000 cases.
End of conversation
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I think the rationale is simply that it's a figure that has decreased
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Right but it's one that will almost by definition increase again at some point
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Also the R number in a locked down economy won't tell you anything about what it will be when an economy opens back up. For sure the base is more important than R when considering reopening. Medical care capacity relative to base is critical determining factor.
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It's ok govt have thought of that all you have to do is add themhttps://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1259545795822596096?s=19 …
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If R>1 it is not safe to open up, unless N = 0, because otherwise N will eventually get big. But yes, the urgency of getting R<1 depends on N. And whether you need R<1, or R<<1, that also depends on N.
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