The effective reproduction rate tells you whether an epidemic is increasing (R>1) or declining (R<1) but the base in many ways more important because a 5% can be gigantic or tiny depending on your starting point
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It is both R and current number of cases tho!
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Is it tho? The infographics are...something
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There is none. Reopening is an experiment to see the rate of change (up) of R. The set number is meaningless (and probably unknowable within a range of 0.5-1. No precision at all. But if it jumps 0.5 - 1 -- you know you've messed up.
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Reopening must be tried--and failure is guaranteed along with several deaths. The simple truth is that if you are not going to quarantine very hard and implement test/trace/isolate you must pay for tests with bodies.
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Surely it would be the expected R after reopening that matters most. If R>1 we have exponential growth, which, even if initially slow, will eventually become unmanageable.
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I think that you are essentially right but, notwithstanding current cap. consideration, can any R>1 lead to capacity overrun really? Merkel said that R=1.1 would cause overrun in October. That seemed to me far fetched, given that Germany is not at risk of overrun currently.
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I guess I believe that decreasing susceptibility would play a bigger role over time, decreasing current R>1, in the absence of danger of overrun in the meanwhile.
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