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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Dr Elly Howse‏ @ellyhowse 7 May 2020

      Dr Elly Howse Retweeted Peter Tennant (on holiday)

      This is what you were wondering @jack_milroyhttps://twitter.com/PWGTennant/status/1258506049067216897 …

      Dr Elly Howse added,

      Peter Tennant (on holiday) @PWGTennant
      Replying to @trishgreenhalgh @bengoldacre
      I'm sorry, but the apparent 'effect' of smoking is not estimated by this model. This is because, you can't interpret the individual terms and coefficients in a 'risk factor' prediction model. This is well known (outside the UK!) as the Table 2 Fallacy.
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Adam Chalmers‏ @adam_chal 7 May 2020
      Replying to @ellyhowse @jack_milroy

      Do you know of a good explanation of this somewhere? My boss is very excitedly sharing how smoking might protect from covid.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 May 2020
      Replying to @adam_chal @ellyhowse @jack_milroy

      It's complex. Basically, this model isn't constructed to measure smoking->death due to COVID-19. By controlling for a number of potentially inappropriate things in the Cox regression, they may have changed the impact of smoking on risk of death

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @adam_chal and

      For example, smoking causes diabetes, and diabetes causes an increased risk of death from COVID-19. By controlling for both of these in the same model, we are seeing the impact of smoking sans the negative effects of smoking in diabetes. Same with respiratory and heart disease

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Adam Chalmers‏ @adam_chal 7 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ellyhowse @jack_milroy

      Ah the old "controlling for a cause" problem! Thank you.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 May 2020
      Replying to @adam_chal @ellyhowse @jack_milroy

      Pleasure! There's a great paper on it here with worked examples https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6103824/pdf/nihms963846.pdf …

      5:00 PM - 7 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @adam_chal and

          The other issue is survivorship bias - if you exclude the impact of negative health conditions, people who smoke tend to be younger and thus less likely to die from COVID-19. Thus, smoking may be a proxy for something else once you've removed all of the things that it causes

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dr Elly Howse‏ @ellyhowse 7 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @adam_chal @jack_milroy

          There is no way I could have explained that as eloquently as Gid did. This is why I’m a policy person and he’s in epi ☺️

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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