This is what you were wondering @jack_milroyhttps://twitter.com/PWGTennant/status/1258506049067216897 …
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Replying to @ellyhowse @jack_milroy
Do you know of a good explanation of this somewhere? My boss is very excitedly sharing how smoking might protect from covid.
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It's complex. Basically, this model isn't constructed to measure smoking->death due to COVID-19. By controlling for a number of potentially inappropriate things in the Cox regression, they may have changed the impact of smoking on risk of death
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Replying to @GidMK @adam_chal and
For example, smoking causes diabetes, and diabetes causes an increased risk of death from COVID-19. By controlling for both of these in the same model, we are seeing the impact of smoking sans the negative effects of smoking in diabetes. Same with respiratory and heart disease
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It's a bit like measuring the risk of car crashes on health if you controlled for traumatic injury, or the risk of shootings if you controlled for gunshot wounds - you have to exclude the mediators to get an unbiased estimate of smoking->death
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