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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 4 May 2020
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK and

      If the goal was herd immunity then we would want to increase the number of people infected just so that our hospitals can cope. No instead we want the numbers to get lower just like everyone else.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Johan Wallström‏ @Plantbiased 5 May 2020
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK and

      Counter-point: our new cases are quite constant. Maybe just barely under R=1. Tegnell said that if the numbers start going up, there will be more actions. Doesn't that seem to indicate there is not much ambition to lower numbers?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Johan Wallström‏ @Plantbiased 5 May 2020
      Replying to @Plantbiased @JacobGudiol and

      Tegnell have stated that herd immunity is not the "main strategy", but I think there is some grey area here too - they certainly seem to be more herd immunity "friendly" than others. Even our earlier state epidemiologist seems to believe so (in march?)https://www.svd.se/strategin-lat-manga-smittas-i-lagom-takt …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 5 May 2020
      Replying to @Plantbiased @GidMK and

      Herd immunity depends on R0. If Stockholm gets up to about 30% infected and with the same physical distancing as today then the new number of infections should slow more We'll see then how soon they start easing on the restrictions. That could give a hint maybe?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 5 May 2020
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @Plantbiased and

      This conversation got away from me a bit, but I think it's worth noting that even at 30% immune you don't get much of a dent in future outbreaks. Reff = 3-(0.3*3) = 2.1, still high enough to cause a massive outbreak

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Johan Wallström‏ @Plantbiased 6 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol and

      Agreed. Regarding not using herd immunity as a strategy, their argument is: "If we wanted to achieve herd immunity we would have done nothing and let coronavirus run rampant through society." https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-covid-19-sweden-anders-tegnell-herd-immunity/3031536001/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 May 2020
      Replying to @Plantbiased @JacobGudiol and

      I'm not saying using herd immunity as a strategy or not, just pointing out that even a fairly high rate of infection as in Stockholm is unlikely to make much of a difference in the risks of future outbreaks unfortunately

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 6 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Plantbiased

      I'm surpriced your still here and actually reading some of our tweets 🙂 I thought I unchecked the rest in this thread yesterday but I guess Johan answered some other tweet

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 6 May 2020
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK @Plantbiased

      Regarding R0 and some immunity. It could be a bit early to say but cases, ICU and deaths seem to be going down in Stockholm At the same time however there's been objective data showing that people are moving about a bit more nowhttps://omni.se/mobildata-visar-fler-ror-sig-ute-pa-kvallarna-igen/a/K34rwM …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 6 May 2020
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK @Plantbiased

      I've interpreted that as a sign that as a sign that some immunity in the population is slowing the spread despite of some Swedes not being a diligent as last month I can't find any other real good reason for the trend otherwise

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 May 2020
      Replying to @JacobGudiol @Plantbiased

      I suspect that social distancing messaging will lower R0 even if people do start moving a bit more. Combined with the very modest reduction caused by <20% of the population infected, might be enough. Hard to say, we might see another uptick in cases as well 🤷‍♂️

      1:37 AM - 6 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Nina Milanov
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Johan Wallström‏ @Plantbiased 6 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol

          Agreed - I think what is happening is around Stockholm we're getting more herd immunity causing the decline. Here in Västernorrland we are continuing to increase, R>1. Without further actions, we'll have to reach herd immunity here too. There is very little testing - CFR = 16%!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 6 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Plantbiased

          Yeah, they good go up a bit more. 10 days after Easter Stockholm had 3 days with the highest number of new cases ever. Most of the cases were younger people though And we had another holiday this last weekend so in a week there could be another small increase

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Jacob Gudiol‏Verified account @JacobGudiol 6 May 2020
          Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK @Plantbiased

          the could -> good was autocorrect 🙂

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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