There's a enormous difference between: "let's just get infected so we get heard immunity" and "let's minimize the number of infected people as much as we possibly can while doing something we can keep doping for a long time"
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Replying to @JacobGudiol @nataliexdean and
I live in Sweden. I've watched more or less every press conference. I've read the information from Folkhälsomyndigheten and their reports/models There's never been any mentions of heard immunity being the goal
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Replying to @JacobGudiol @nataliexdean and
This is fascinating, because the message I've seen from Aus, English, US, and other media has consistently been about herd immunity. I've always assumed that no actual epidemiologists were involved in that message
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Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean and
Our numbers are going down since about 2w back and there's no talk whatsoever of opening things up again. At the press conferences FHM are very open with this being something that we're going to have to do for a very long time going forward.
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Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK and
If the goal was herd immunity then we would want to increase the number of people infected just so that our hospitals can cope. No instead we want the numbers to get lower just like everyone else.
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Replying to @JacobGudiol @GidMK and
Counter-point: our new cases are quite constant. Maybe just barely under R=1. Tegnell said that if the numbers start going up, there will be more actions. Doesn't that seem to indicate there is not much ambition to lower numbers?
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Replying to @Plantbiased @JacobGudiol and
Tegnell have stated that herd immunity is not the "main strategy", but I think there is some grey area here too - they certainly seem to be more herd immunity "friendly" than others. Even our earlier state epidemiologist seems to believe so (in march?)https://www.svd.se/strategin-lat-manga-smittas-i-lagom-takt …
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Replying to @Plantbiased @GidMK and
Herd immunity depends on R0. If Stockholm gets up to about 30% infected and with the same physical distancing as today then the new number of infections should slow more We'll see then how soon they start easing on the restrictions. That could give a hint maybe?
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Replying to @JacobGudiol @Plantbiased and
This conversation got away from me a bit, but I think it's worth noting that even at 30% immune you don't get much of a dent in future outbreaks. Reff = 3-(0.3*3) = 2.1, still high enough to cause a massive outbreak
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Replying to @GidMK @JacobGudiol and
Agreed. Regarding not using herd immunity as a strategy, their argument is: "If we wanted to achieve herd immunity we would have done nothing and let coronavirus run rampant through society." https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/28/coronavirus-covid-19-sweden-anders-tegnell-herd-immunity/3031536001/ …
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I'm not saying using herd immunity as a strategy or not, just pointing out that even a fairly high rate of infection as in Stockholm is unlikely to make much of a difference in the risks of future outbreaks unfortunately
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Replying to @GidMK @Plantbiased
I'm surpriced your still here and actually reading some of our tweets
I thought I unchecked the rest in this thread yesterday but I guess Johan answered some other tweet1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Regarding R0 and some immunity. It could be a bit early to say but cases, ICU and deaths seem to be going down in Stockholm At the same time however there's been objective data showing that people are moving about a bit more nowhttps://omni.se/mobildata-visar-fler-ror-sig-ute-pa-kvallarna-igen/a/K34rwM …
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