One of the most fascinating things about the pandemic has been watching people make grand statements about COVID-19 without even opening an epidemiology textbook firsthttps://twitter.com/phl43/status/1253708015510921216 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Health Nerd Retweeted Philippe Lemoine
One of the most fascinating things about the pandemic has been watching people make grand statements about COVID-19 without even opening an epidemiology textbook firsthttps://twitter.com/phl43/status/1253708015510921216 …
Health Nerd added,
I teach epidemiology and I think that poster makes a good point. Theoretical estimates of herd immunity thresholds based on SIR models don’t capture population structure. Now I don’t think 20% does the trick but the true threshold is probably somewhere south of 70%.
Sure, but very few people are relying on simple SIR models. It's not like population dynamics are an entirely unknown phenomenon in the world of epi
Yeah. I was fishing for a way to be nice to the kid. But herd immunity at 10% is pretty ridiculous. His model must be pretty cartoonish. But so are some of the big shots’ models. I’m pretty sure the folks at UW-IHME have cracked open an epi text once or twice.
Honestly, I'm not convinced of that 
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