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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020

    It's startling to watch people argue that #COVID19 is similar to influenza in terms of death rate. Using NYC as a strict lower bound: 13,536 confirmed COVID deaths 5,373 suspected COVID deaths 8,398,748 people TOTAL = 0.16-0.23% of the TOTAL population dead

    6:41 PM - 4 May 2020
    • 13 Retweets
    • 29 Likes
    • M.B. Drapier lucysummer Nigel Kinbrum Kurikesh George Sarah Jones Tarkkailija 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave Carmina Victoria
    5 replies 13 retweets 29 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020

        For this to be similar to the flu (~0.1% IFR), EVERYONE in New York would've had to be infected 2-3 weeks ago

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020

        If we use a more reasonable estimate - say, the serology study from NYC - it would appear somewhere between 0.5-1.2% of people in New York who caught COVID-19 died That is MUCH higher than influenza

        1 reply 2 retweets 15 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020

        A point that's worth making here is that NYC actually has quite a low median age, which makes these numbers even more worrying

        3 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Edward Chen‏ @xuanzhuo85 4 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Well, I’m no expert, purely personal opinion. There are vaccines and antiviral drugs for flu, flu has been around for ages, many people already immune to it, SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Edward Chen‏ @xuanzhuo85 4 May 2020
        Replying to @xuanzhuo85 @GidMK

        Also, personal speculation: the lockdown of Wuhan had been lifted on April 8th. Why would they allow people in Wuhan left the city? Could it be that Wuhan people already gained herd immunity 4 months later since the beginning of the outbreak?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. qpp‏ @inmybackyardpls 4 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @OperationalInc1

        Yes, claims of 0.1% overall IFR are obviously complete bullshit when multiple locations have suffered more than that deaths of their whole population NYC, Madrid, Lombardy, Brussels....and even then the scale masks the worst spots. Check Bergamo

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Dr Paul Mackey‏ @auscandoc 4 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Dr Paul Mackey Retweeted Dr Paul Mackey

        Making sure my math is straight. John Hopkins says New York County (popltn 8M) has 1752 deaths. Are the 13K deaths in greater New York (popltn 20M)? https://twitter.com/auscandoc/status/1256647585923690496?s=21 …https://twitter.com/auscandoc/status/1256647585923690496 …

        Dr Paul Mackey added,

        Dr Paul Mackey @auscandoc
        Just coming back to this..and checking.. Google says New York County 8.4 Million. JH COVID says 1699 deaths (today). Is the 13,000 (on Apr 18) mistakenly totalling mortality for all of Greater New York and not just NH County?
        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020
        Replying to @auscandoc

        I think you're misreading there? 1752 is, I believe, for Nassau County, NY State. NYC data is directly available here https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. Lina‏ @LinaLillyP 4 May 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I agree it's startling, even more so that one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, 1st Chief Scientist of the ECDC, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, Johan Giesecke, says that fatality rate of #COVID19 is the region of 0,1%. 🤷‍♀️#coronasverige

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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