For this to be similar to the flu (~0.1% IFR), EVERYONE in New York would've had to be infected 2-3 weeks ago
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If we use a more reasonable estimate - say, the serology study from NYC - it would appear somewhere between 0.5-1.2% of people in New York who caught COVID-19 died That is MUCH higher than influenza
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A point that's worth making here is that NYC actually has quite a low median age, which makes these numbers even more worrying
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Well, I’m no expert, purely personal opinion. There are vaccines and antiviral drugs for flu, flu has been around for ages, many people already immune to it, SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus.
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Also, personal speculation: the lockdown of Wuhan had been lifted on April 8th. Why would they allow people in Wuhan left the city? Could it be that Wuhan people already gained herd immunity 4 months later since the beginning of the outbreak?
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Yes, claims of 0.1% overall IFR are obviously complete bullshit when multiple locations have suffered more than that deaths of their whole population NYC, Madrid, Lombardy, Brussels....and even then the scale masks the worst spots. Check Bergamo
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Making sure my math is straight. John Hopkins says New York County (popltn 8M) has 1752 deaths. Are the 13K deaths in greater New York (popltn 20M)? https://twitter.com/auscandoc/status/1256647585923690496?s=21 …https://twitter.com/auscandoc/status/1256647585923690496 …
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I think you're misreading there? 1752 is, I believe, for Nassau County, NY State. NYC data is directly available here https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page …
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I agree it's startling, even more so that one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, 1st Chief Scientist of the ECDC, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, Johan Giesecke, says that fatality rate of
#COVID19 is the region of 0,1%.
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