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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

      This is perhaps interesting. You can do a pretty good job of predicting recent R in each state based on Apple's mobility data and urbanization. No surprise, but cases are falling more where people are moving around less.pic.twitter.com/LGkYr6sxFi

      60 replies 350 retweets 1,568 likes
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    2. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

      But controlling for mobility, they're also falling more in rural states than urban ones. Montana isn't having many COVID-19 cases even though mobility is high there, for instance.pic.twitter.com/2Xw5KWgyc7

      32 replies 39 retweets 225 likes
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    3. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

      R's are estimated using the technique described here and attempt to account for the number of tests. They reflect a median of the previous 4 weeks, which should capture the post-lockdown period fairly well.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-cases-are-still-growing-in-many-u-s-states/ …

      10 replies 35 retweets 194 likes
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    4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

      FWIW, there may also be some effects from partial herd immunity in edge cases, e.g. cases are falling faster than the model thinks they "should" be falling in NY. This effect is likely to be negligible for most of the country, though.

      14 replies 16 retweets 172 likes
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    5. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

      p.s. This would suggest the decline in social distancing from where it was just after lockdown to where it is now will raise R by something like 0.1. That's not *that* much. But since we were barely (if at all) reducing cases before, it could be enough to matter.

      6 replies 22 retweets 171 likes
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    6. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 4 May 2020

      Plus, distancing will likely erode further. I don't think people should *necessarily* expect to see an *explosion* of new cases. It may lead to a long plateau at high numbers, though. Maybe we get lucky and weather offsets some of this, although then there are problems in fall.

      19 replies 26 retweets 217 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      Depends how we define "explosion" I think. Numerically, since we're starting at a much higher base, even relatively small daily percentage increases from 3% to 6% would result in very large numbers of new cases

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 May 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @NateSilver538

      If we see the daily increase go from ~3% to ~6% for a week in the US, that'd be an extra 300k cases at this point. A very small percentage increase, but a very big numerical increase

      5:57 PM - 4 May 2020
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      • SandyM Sparky not “Bad Patch” Bob Amanda
      0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

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