I'm an epidemiologist. I put the chances that there will be no daily deaths in the US due to #COVID19 by May 15th relatively close to 0%https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1257410595218808833 …
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A much more realistic prediction is that deaths probably will decline a bit - the impact of lockdowns during April - before ticking up again as the reopening causes more people to get sick again
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Replying to @GidMK
what's reasonable lag time between reporting of tests to death do you think? I've seen 2 - 8 weeks before.
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Replying to @ReliefBelief
Median infection -> death is somewhere between 12-20 days. Mean is higher, usually around 20-30 days
5:05 PM - 4 May 2020
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