I'm an epidemiologist. I put the chances that there will be no daily deaths in the US due to #COVID19 by May 15th relatively close to 0%https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1257410595218808833 …
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One thing that I think is important to note is that large-scale reopening may not have the same rate of increase (i.e. R0 will be lower) but since we're starting from a MUCH higher base number of infections, even a few days of exponential increase will be huge
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NY deaths may decline a bit, but I suspect will be obscured on a national level by the multitude of states that never socially distanced, followed by a significant rise due to relaxation as you suggest
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what's reasonable lag time between reporting of tests to death do you think? I've seen 2 - 8 weeks before.
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Median infection -> death is somewhere between 12-20 days. Mean is higher, usually around 20-30 days
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