A much more realistic prediction is that deaths probably will decline a bit - the impact of lockdowns during April - before ticking up again as the reopening causes more people to get sick again
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One thing that I think is important to note is that large-scale reopening may not have the same rate of increase (i.e. R0 will be lower) but since we're starting from a MUCH higher base number of infections, even a few days of exponential increase will be huge
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May 15 press conference: "We've had the greatest victory. It's the best. In the world. And because we've completely beaten the corona virus, we're not testing anymore. So there can't be any more cases, no matter what the Fake News tells you!"
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Depends if the world ends before May 15th.
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And someone out there thinks a rapture is going to happen tomorrow.
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Given that there have been 1500-2000 deaths per day in the US for the last month, it probably isn't going out on a limb to say it'll be about the same next week.
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I'm somewhat surprised that anyone could say with a straight face that it's likely that there will be no deaths in the US by May 15th, it's just so incredibly unlikely
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Totally squashes any linear model
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