Sweden has 12% death - not testing enough. The virus isn't different. The responses to it really are.
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Replying to @MackayIM
They seem to put enormous stock in their earlier sero-prevalence studies and modelling. Anders Tegnell predicting herd immunity in a few weeks. Boldest
#covid19 prediction I've seen.pic.twitter.com/P7YGNh0pP8
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This seems like very simply bad science to me. Can't extrapolate from hospital workers, they're a highly selected population. Although, if Stockholm is at 27% infected with their current death toll, it implies at a minimum another 2,500 deaths there before herd immunity
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Also, if this is true, the infection fatality rate is currently at ~0.2%, but given that it's right-censored (most people have only just gotten sick), you'd expect that to go up quite a bit in the next few weeks
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Oh that is literally one of the main go-to claims of the Swedish defence - that their IFR is much much lower than other countries. Really? Why? How? More rhetorical gymnastics ensue.
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Yep. Population of Stockholm county = 2.344 mil. Best information I can find suggests 1,300 deaths. Infection rate ~ 25% implies 0.22% IFR. Accounting for right-censoring, that's perhaps somewhere between 0.3-0.5%
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So potential 3-5 times higher than the 0.1% we were see elsewhere?
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Where are we seeing 0.1%? I haven't seen a reasonable estimate that is that low
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Oh whoops I was looking at something else! Your MA has a range of IFRs which look much closer to 1% - maybe! (‘It depends’)
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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