What is the 'true' infection-fatality rate of #COVID19?
We don't know. But I spent my weekend doing a systematic review/meta-analysis to get a reasonable estimatehttps://medium.com/@gidmk/what-is-the-infection-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-7f58f7c90410 …
If I had to pick a single estimate as the most reliable, I'd say the best modelling study was the Diamond Princess one in the Lancet (0.66% IFR) due to their extremely careful corrections (I.e for censoring)
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So far the serology studies have either been unreliable or poorly reported, so I am very cautious in extrapolating from their findings. I do think one study that looked at extreme lower bounds of IFR was interesting, suggesting strongly that it is extremely unlikely to be <.15%
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unreliable but consistent in their message. Some information is better than none. At any rate, what is used in models is not one number but a discretized distribution of IFRs over population structure. Change the shape of the distribution and people will reasses their priorties
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