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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jordanschumway

      Mark Hoofnagle Retweeted Rod Hayward

      That study is problematic. Better statisticians than me have been very critical of it eg https://twitter.com/profhayward/status/1254089881963331585?s=21 …https://twitter.com/ProfHayward/status/1254089881963331585 …

      Mark Hoofnagle added,

      Rod Hayward @ProfHayward
      Is the 0.1% infection fatality rate (IFR) reported in Santa Clara & LA studies plausible? No, & here’s why. Using similar antibody testing, a pop sample in NYC found a 20% pos rate. /1
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. ℂon artists 𝔻eceiving the ℂountry‏ @jordanschumway 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @MarkHoofnagle

      Well, this all started with your claiming, and then doing so again, that the IFR for 20-40 year-olds was .2% and that is untrue, then you went off in another direction about ICU admissions. USS TR had 850+ cases and one death.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jordanschumway

      Based on the CDC data and standard methodology, and I also said I expect that to drop as we determine seroprevalence. But I’m not going to accept a 100 or 1000x drop based on a single widely criticized study with bizarre recruitment and a hefty assumption about 99.5% specificty.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @jordanschumway

      As prof Hayward points out, this is already in direct conflict with the data from the same test applied in NY which suggests that estimate is incompatible with reality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @jordanschumway

      Also, as @GidMK has now helpfully assembled all existing IFRs into a handy Forest plot the real number looks like it’s gonna fall between 0.5-1%.pic.twitter.com/FstN1p17nP

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. ℂon artists 𝔻eceiving the ℂountry‏ @jordanschumway 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @GidMK

      You keep moving the goal posts - you specifically said IFR for 20-40 year olds and now you’re showing data and a graph with the overall IFR...you also haven’t corrected your 10x-20x death count = ICU admissions which sounds like more fear mongering.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jordanschumway @GidMK

      I’m pointing out the overall IFR of the Santa study is coming in much lower than other studies. I don’t think it’s going to fare well. The 10-20x rate is accurate based on the CDC MMR for that age group (the topic of the thread) You made the mistake of applying it NYC, not me.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. ℂon artists 𝔻eceiving the ℂountry‏ @jordanschumway 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @GidMK

      What is it relevant to then? Where is the ICU rate = 10x the death rate?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. ℂon artists 𝔻eceiving the ℂountry‏ @jordanschumway 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jordanschumway @MarkHoofnagle @GidMK

      And my specific question was “what age range are you saying is 1:500 IFR” to which you stated 20-40 year olds - you’ve shown over IFR to support that

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @jordanschumway

      I think I’ve got it now. We are having IFR/CFR confusion. I’ve been talking CFR, you’ve been asking for IFR. @GidMK is there good data on IFR by age group?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Apr 2020
      Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @jordanschumway

      Not that I know of. There are some extrapolations but I didn't see enough to aggregate when I did the SR

      4:01 PM - 28 Apr 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jordanschumway

          Yeah I notice the Oxford site won’t really take a stand as it’s still too uncertain. Either way, it’s besides the point I was trying to make, which is, for each young person that dies we expect lots of ICU stays and excess morbidity.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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