That study is problematic. Better statisticians than me have been very critical of it eg https://twitter.com/profhayward/status/1254089881963331585?s=21 …https://twitter.com/ProfHayward/status/1254089881963331585 …
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Replying to @MarkHoofnagle
Well, this all started with your claiming, and then doing so again, that the IFR for 20-40 year-olds was .2% and that is untrue, then you went off in another direction about ICU admissions. USS TR had 850+ cases and one death.
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Replying to @jordanschumway
Based on the CDC data and standard methodology, and I also said I expect that to drop as we determine seroprevalence. But I’m not going to accept a 100 or 1000x drop based on a single widely criticized study with bizarre recruitment and a hefty assumption about 99.5% specificty.
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Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @jordanschumway
As prof Hayward points out, this is already in direct conflict with the data from the same test applied in NY which suggests that estimate is incompatible with reality.
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Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @jordanschumway
Also, as
@GidMK has now helpfully assembled all existing IFRs into a handy Forest plot the real number looks like it’s gonna fall between 0.5-1%.pic.twitter.com/FstN1p17nP
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Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @GidMK
You keep moving the goal posts - you specifically said IFR for 20-40 year olds and now you’re showing data and a graph with the overall IFR...you also haven’t corrected your 10x-20x death count = ICU admissions which sounds like more fear mongering.
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Replying to @jordanschumway @GidMK
I’m pointing out the overall IFR of the Santa study is coming in much lower than other studies. I don’t think it’s going to fare well. The 10-20x rate is accurate based on the CDC MMR for that age group (the topic of the thread) You made the mistake of applying it NYC, not me.
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Replying to @MarkHoofnagle @GidMK
What is it relevant to then? Where is the ICU rate = 10x the death rate?
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And my specific question was “what age range are you saying is 1:500 IFR” to which you stated 20-40 year olds - you’ve shown over IFR to support that
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Replying to @jordanschumway
I think I’ve got it now. We are having IFR/CFR confusion. I’ve been talking CFR, you’ve been asking for IFR.
@GidMK is there good data on IFR by age group?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Not that I know of. There are some extrapolations but I didn't see enough to aggregate when I did the SR
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Replying to @GidMK @jordanschumway
Yeah I notice the Oxford site won’t really take a stand as it’s still too uncertain. Either way, it’s besides the point I was trying to make, which is, for each young person that dies we expect lots of ICU stays and excess morbidity.
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