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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      What is the 'true' infection-fatality rate of #COVID19? We don't know. But I spent my weekend doing a systematic review/meta-analysis to get a reasonable estimatehttps://medium.com/@gidmk/what-is-the-infection-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-7f58f7c90410 …

      48 replies 164 retweets 363 likes
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    2. PharmB‏ @BonellC 27 Apr 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @jamesheathers

      Here’s a “back of a napkin” calculation using the latest serology survey data posted from New York State - 19.5M people: prevalence 15.9% = 3.1M. Official COVID-19 deaths 22650 plus estimate underreported of200/day x 27 days = 28K/3.1M = 0.90%

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. PharmB‏ @BonellC 27 Apr 2020
      Replying to @BonellC @GidMK @jamesheathers

      You could also look at the serology data from the town of Gangelt in Germany-the “German Wuhan” - also about 15% seroprevalance but a lower # of deaths (due to better healthcare coverage?) giving an IFR of 0.37% of course this data includes the Heinsberg Uncertainty Principle 😉

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020
      Replying to @BonellC @jamesheathers

      I know of the German paper but my German is terrible and I didn't trust Google translate. Do you have the confidence interval and point estimate in the paper?

      10:42 PM - 27 Apr 2020
      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. PharmB‏ @BonellC 27 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jamesheathers

          My German is likely worse - I have a student I can ask her tomorrow - here’s a graphic of the serology data I was looking atpic.twitter.com/vVg1VNpZ4Y

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. PharmB‏ @BonellC 27 Apr 2020
          Replying to @BonellC @GidMK @jamesheathers

          Must keep in mind that this is a very small city - I like the data from bigger metropolitan areas better - but again there are so many variables - I applaud your efforts!

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Marc Läderach‏ @laederach_m 4 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BonellC @jamesheathers

          https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/%24FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Marc Läderach‏ @laederach_m 4 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BonellC @jamesheathers

          Marc Läderach Retweeted Irgendjemand123

          https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanjboo/status/1257297890558517256 …

          Marc Läderach added,

          Irgendjemand123 @Irgendjemanddd
          Replying to @dankrad @hendrikstreeck
          it's nine deaths now 30. April (Stand 15 Uhr): Seit dem Erkelenz 85/75/4; Gangelt 478/446/9; Geilenkirchen 206/186/4; Heinsberg 427/376/22; Hückelhoven 117/97/5; Selfkant 131/117/4; Übach-Palenberg 81/66/6; Waldfeucht 121/106/9; Wassenberg 63/53/3; Wegberg 43/27/0.
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Marc Läderach‏ @laederach_m 4 May 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @BonellC @jamesheathers

          Marc Läderach Retweeted Richard Neher

          https://mobile.twitter.com/richardneher/status/1257306711569793027 …

          Marc Läderach added,

          Richard Neher @richardneher
          It seems as if the confidence intervals on the IFR estimate in this preprint are just a scaled version of the prevalence confidence interval (ht @BrianSetzler). With 7 or 8 deaths, this clearly misses the point. The confidence intervals are much wider... https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1257288261288054787 …
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