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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      What is the 'true' infection-fatality rate of #COVID19? We don't know. But I spent my weekend doing a systematic review/meta-analysis to get a reasonable estimatehttps://medium.com/@gidmk/what-is-the-infection-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-7f58f7c90410 …

      48 replies 164 retweets 364 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      The overall figure, based on 13 published estimates from a bunch of different places, is 0.79% (0.53-1.05%), which is actually a bit higher than I was expecting

      3 replies 5 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      Note: this is very much a LIVING DOCUMENT I may have made mistakes. I probably have. Point them out and let's work on better estimates together

      6 replies 1 retweet 32 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      And thanks to @jamesheathers, who suggested this excellent plan

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      Also, worth noting that this isn't a brilliant estimate because there aren't that many studies and they are VERY heterogeneous Ideally I'd like to stratify by age and region, but that's gonna take more data!

      8:21 PM - 27 Apr 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 21 Likes
      • Scott Davison Frank 🇺🇸Vaccinate America🇺🇸 (((Zanthinegirl))) Whitney R. Robinson alex rubinsteyn ChristineClaveyBond މުޙައްމަދު އަޝުރަފު Mohamed Ashraf Scott Alexander Defense Force Jonatan Pallesen
      7 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. SandyM‏ @sandym1001 27 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          If you use your methodology looking at seasonal flu, what infection-fatality rate would you generate?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. SandyM‏ @sandym1001 27 Apr 2020
          Replying to @sandym1001 @GidMK

          I should say, *qualitatively*, how do you think your approach would affect the 0.1% flu figure commonly cited? I’ve read that serological surveys indicate the IFR is more like 0.02-0.05%, but studies are limited.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Meg  💫 would like to return the 2020s, manager‏ @savvymegs 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          How much did the studies in question factor in seroprevalence data?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dr. Antonio Gutiérrez, Ph.D.‏ @boticariors 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Totally agree. Congrats and thanks for work. Even so, useful data. To test heterog. , did you use I2 / Q / Tau ?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dan Grey‏ @dan_grey 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Isn't the lack of this data something of a scandal?? This is such basic stuff

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jonatan Pallesen‏ @jonatanpallesen 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Stratifying by age is vital I think, for comparison between countries with different demographics. I have been thinking about the same, but not sure how to get the numbers.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. BCNT‏ @BCNThomson 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Why not publish in a "scientific" journal, e.g. medRxiv or bioRxiv?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @BCNThomson

          No particular reason. Might do that today

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Merijn "Billions of tests" Knibbe‏ @MerijnKnibbe 29 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The Iceland data are useful as they did a lot of testing and have few new cases at this moment. Here: data on the prevalence of Corona: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100 … Here, data on deaths: http://covid.is/data 

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Merijn "Billions of tests" Knibbe‏ @MerijnKnibbe 29 Apr 2020
          Replying to @MerijnKnibbe @GidMK

          At this moment, 10 people have died while there were 1797 cases. Subtracting very new cases and adding undetected cases we may put the total at 2000 -> 0,5%. Assuming some undetected deaths plus future deaths it might go up to 1%.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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