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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      This is fascinating Initial estimate saw 40-80% of Stockholm county infected by May 1st Swedish government then confirmed this estimate Then retracted this, and published an estimate of 26% Now seems it may be as low as 5-10% This has HUGE implications for herd immunityhttps://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      This modelling study from Sweden suggests 26% of Stockholm county will have been infected by May 1st (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/2da059f90b90458d8454a04955d1697f/skattning-peakdag-antal-infekterade-covid-19-utbrottet-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020.pdf …). However, our estimates of under-reporting suggest only 5-10% have been infected so far (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …). So what's going on? 1/
      Show this thread
      2 replies 12 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Apr 2020

      Remember, herd immunity comes in at 60%+ of the population infected and recovered If only 5-10% of the population has been infected, they have a LONG way to go

      3:23 PM - 27 Apr 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 15 Likes
      • The_Skeptical_Scientist⚗️💉🔬🔭⚖️ Tammy Hope stacie Jeff Huber 🇺🇸 Kiwiana Grace 🌼🌸 Viljami Changed Jesús Rosino
      3 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
        1. Malte Hildingsson‏ @afterwise__ 27 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Who doesn't?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. thunderbell‏ @thunderbell 27 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Wait...do we even know if being infected provides immunity and if so how long it lasts? Because until we know that I’m not sure it’s relevant to talk herd immunity.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dan Grey‏ @dan_grey 28 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Dan Grey Retweeted Philippe Lemoine

          ...but if you consider network effects it's possibly/probably somewhat less than 60%.https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1253708015510921216 …

          Dan Grey added,

          Philippe Lemoine @phl43
          A lot of people claim that, given that even in NYC only ~20% of people seem to have been infected, we are still a long way from herd immunity, but I'm actually not sure this is correct for the kind of reasons outlined by this guy in a comment to @tylercowen's controversial post. pic.twitter.com/e2koLTSdr9
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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