3/n Early infection-fatality estimates from China using a sample including 80% mild/asymptomatic cases indicated an IFR of 0.9%pic.twitter.com/ydYFwXY6ZJ
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more
By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.
| Country | Code | For customers of |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 40404 | (any) |
| Canada | 21212 | (any) |
| United Kingdom | 86444 | Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2 |
| Brazil | 40404 | Nextel, TIM |
| Haiti | 40404 | Digicel, Voila |
| Ireland | 51210 | Vodafone, O2 |
| India | 53000 | Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance |
| Indonesia | 89887 | AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata |
| Italy | 4880804 | Wind |
| 3424486444 | Vodafone | |
| » See SMS short codes for other countries | ||
This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.
Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.
When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.
The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.
Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.
Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.
Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.
See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.
Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.
3/n Early infection-fatality estimates from China using a sample including 80% mild/asymptomatic cases indicated an IFR of 0.9%pic.twitter.com/ydYFwXY6ZJ
4/n Some early modelling work from late January had a similar finding - given an identification rate of 9%, the IFR was estimate to be 0.5-0.8%pic.twitter.com/Q3AYYyaQdQ
5/n Later estimates that also used data from China came to similar conclusions - an IFR of 0.66% in this paperpic.twitter.com/J70ZG84Nu2
6/n Next up, we have evidence from the Diamond Princess (remember that? It was either one month or 1,000,000 years ago) Based on infections in this closed environment, the estimate came back at 1.3%, but with a WIDE confidence intervalpic.twitter.com/mJKsdYMI0S
7/n In early March, we get the lowest estimate so far, from Oxford University, using a number of datasets to predict an IFR of 0.1-0.36%pic.twitter.com/NQNzFHDqR6
8/n There's also a modelling paper from Imperial College that has a much higher estimate, predicting 1% IFRpic.twitter.com/mo4zgFXMSw
9/n A preprint from Italy in early April looked at these previous estimates and argued that neither the very low estimate (0.1%) nor the very high (1.3%) seemed consistent with the data therepic.twitter.com/20lNWiSrWZ
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
10/n And now, serology from New York appears to imply an IFR of 0.9% in the city and closer to 0.5% across the statehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1253441361547689984?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
11/n This is in contrast with two serology studies in California, that implied a much lower IFR (but had significant flaws)pic.twitter.com/7O35um7Vdi
12/n I'll keep adding to this thread, but up until now the estimates range from 0.1% at the lowest to 1.3% at the highest Almost all estimates are between 0.3-1%, very few argue for lower or higher than this Virtually all include 0.3-0.5% in their confidence interval
13/n Something worth noting here is that IFR is likely to vary by place, due to demographics and healthcare systems A range of 0.3-1% depending on place would actually be entirely unsurprising
Since I had a minute, I plugged this all into a random-effects model in Stata Looks like the point estimate from these studies is a 0.68% fatality rate, 95% CI 0.33-1.03%pic.twitter.com/8NKqzQs2ku
15/n If you know of any IFR estimates I missed, let me know!
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.