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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 23 Apr 2020

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      One of the reasons why I was critical of the Santa Clara study but so far have not been of the New York results. This 12x ratio of infections to cases is plausible to me. I’ve been saying 10-20x. In contrast, 50-85x felt way too high to be real.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398329766973441 …

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      This reporting ratio of 12X seems entirely within the realm of expectation. If we then take deaths as of today as 17,200 based on excess deaths (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html …), we'd get an infection-to-fatality ratio of ~1%. 4/6
      Show this thread
      21 replies 64 retweets 329 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean

      I agree. Most estimates of the IFR seem to lie between 0.3-1%, I think it's very unlikely that the true death rate is substantially lower than that

      5:01 PM - 23 Apr 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • Jane Shevtsov Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something John Gordon MD Dr David Robert Grimes Dr. Lynora Saxinger 🇨🇦 *not checking mentions Natalie E. Dean, PhD
      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. Dr David Robert Grimes‏Verified account @drg1985 23 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean

          It'll be interesting to see how it pans out with proper PPV / NPV estimates considered

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. C. Jackson‏ @rbo967 23 Apr 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean

          But it is much lower than that for working age people and much higher than that for older folks. Why isn’t anyone acknowledging that seemingly very relevant nuance?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Ridley‏ @RidleyDM 23 Apr 2020
          Replying to @rbo967 @GidMK @nataliexdean

          Plenty of people are. What is the import of that that you think is being missed? One less-discussed consequence, though, is that overall IFR varies a lot from place to place depending on demographics, even if the IFR as a function of age is constant.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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