Lots of serology happening around the world, so I thought I'd do a thread collating some of the infection-fatality estimates for #COVID19 1/n
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10/n And now, serology from New York appears to imply an IFR of 0.9% in the city and closer to 0.5% across the statehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1253441361547689984?s=20 …
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11/n This is in contrast with two serology studies in California, that implied a much lower IFR (but had significant flaws)pic.twitter.com/7O35um7Vdi
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12/n I'll keep adding to this thread, but up until now the estimates range from 0.1% at the lowest to 1.3% at the highest Almost all estimates are between 0.3-1%, very few argue for lower or higher than this Virtually all include 0.3-0.5% in their confidence interval
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13/n Something worth noting here is that IFR is likely to vary by place, due to demographics and healthcare systems A range of 0.3-1% depending on place would actually be entirely unsurprising
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Since I had a minute, I plugged this all into a random-effects model in Stata Looks like the point estimate from these studies is a 0.68% fatality rate, 95% CI 0.33-1.03%pic.twitter.com/8NKqzQs2ku
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15/n If you know of any IFR estimates I missed, let me know!
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End of conversation
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