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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

      Lots of serology happening around the world, so I thought I'd do a thread collating some of the infection-fatality estimates for #COVID19 1/n

      4 replies 32 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

      2/n INFECTION-fatality rate (IFR) is the rate at which people die when they get the disease Unlike CASE-fatality rate (CFR), this includes people who are not tested (i.e. asymptomatic cases) and will be lower, generally

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

      3/n Early infection-fatality estimates from China using a sample including 80% mild/asymptomatic cases indicated an IFR of 0.9%pic.twitter.com/ydYFwXY6ZJ

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

      4/n Some early modelling work from late January had a similar finding - given an identification rate of 9%, the IFR was estimate to be 0.5-0.8%pic.twitter.com/Q3AYYyaQdQ

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

      5/n Later estimates that also used data from China came to similar conclusions - an IFR of 0.66% in this paperpic.twitter.com/J70ZG84Nu2

      3:51 PM - 23 Apr 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Ms D 🌈 Liz *Double Shot* Darvill 💉💉 Elizabeth moved to Chicago Scott Haile
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          6/n Next up, we have evidence from the Diamond Princess (remember that? It was either one month or 1,000,000 years ago) Based on infections in this closed environment, the estimate came back at 1.3%, but with a WIDE confidence intervalpic.twitter.com/mJKsdYMI0S

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          7/n In early March, we get the lowest estimate so far, from Oxford University, using a number of datasets to predict an IFR of 0.1-0.36%pic.twitter.com/NQNzFHDqR6

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          8/n There's also a modelling paper from Imperial College that has a much higher estimate, predicting 1% IFRpic.twitter.com/mo4zgFXMSw

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          9/n A preprint from Italy in early April looked at these previous estimates and argued that neither the very low estimate (0.1%) nor the very high (1.3%) seemed consistent with the data therepic.twitter.com/20lNWiSrWZ

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          10/n And now, serology from New York appears to imply an IFR of 0.9% in the city and closer to 0.5% across the statehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1253441361547689984?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          Serology suggests rate of infection in New York City is 21% If this is true, it means the infection-fatality rate in the city is 0.9% - in line with estimates from around the world It also implies that another 45,000 New Yorkers would die if the disease keeps spreading pic.twitter.com/NFvHRX2AVg
          Show this thread
          1 reply 2 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          11/n This is in contrast with two serology studies in California, that implied a much lower IFR (but had significant flaws)pic.twitter.com/7O35um7Vdi

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          12/n I'll keep adding to this thread, but up until now the estimates range from 0.1% at the lowest to 1.3% at the highest Almost all estimates are between 0.3-1%, very few argue for lower or higher than this Virtually all include 0.3-0.5% in their confidence interval

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          13/n Something worth noting here is that IFR is likely to vary by place, due to demographics and healthcare systems A range of 0.3-1% depending on place would actually be entirely unsurprising

          1 reply 2 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          Since I had a minute, I plugged this all into a random-effects model in Stata Looks like the point estimate from these studies is a 0.68% fatality rate, 95% CI 0.33-1.03%pic.twitter.com/8NKqzQs2ku

          2 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Apr 2020

          15/n If you know of any IFR estimates I missed, let me know!

          6 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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